At the end of day 3 of the 2nd test in Trent Bridge, England is close to 400 runs ahead with 4 wickets in hand. The way things have gone in the series so far, it is likely that England will bat a session and half, extend their lead to more than 500 and in the process set India an unachievable target. A repeat of the Lord’s test seems the most likely result.
And when it does happen, England will all but take over the #1 ranking over from India. ICC rankings are updated at the end of a test series, and England needs to end the series with a 2 win margin to take the #1 spot. So technically India doing a comeback of the order of Perth 2008 will still prevent this from happening. But to be clear, the only results available for India now are to either abdicate the throne or barely cling on to it.
‘How did it get to this point so soon? What went wrong?’ will wonder the Indian cricket fan.
Some ex-cricketers on the other hand have always seen this coming. Ian Chappell has always maintained from the time India got to the top spot that their stay on the top was going to be brief, despite a top notch batting line-up, mainly due to their lack of quality bowlers to take 20 wickets consistently in all conditions. Experts have cited the same reason for South Africa being the more deserving leaders in the game. They seem to possess the most lethal opening attack in the world, and have great batting depth in Kallis, AB, Smith and Amla. And since the day England retained the Ashes in Australia the question for all English fans has been ‘when?’ and not ‘can we?’ to take the top spot. Again, in their case, the argument has been that they have the most all round bowling attack in the world with Anderson, Swann, Broad and Tremlett with an in-form batting line-up backing them up.
India has had to defend its ranking against these strong contenders in their backyards. They did so remarkably against South Africa earlier this year by coming back from an innings defeat in Centurion to take the next test at Durban, and drawing the next test at Cape Town. Now they are doing battle with England in England, and at the time of writing this, seem to be losing this battle.
So is this the beginning of the end for India? I do not think so.
We have heard a lot of experts saying that England has looked the better side in the series so far, and India has not looked like the #1 side in the world. The biggest reason for India not looking like a world beating side in this series has been a series of injuries to their key players. Zaheer and Sehwag have been their enforcers with the ball and bat respectively, making some of the best players in the opposition look clueless. Add to this list the injuries to Gambhir, Harbhajan & Tendulkar. Is it really a surprise that this team has not looked like world beaters? How would this England team fare without Cook, Strauss, Swann, Anderson & Pietersen? How would the South African team fare without Smith, Steyn, Morkel, Amla and AB? For that matter how would the all conquering Australian team have done without Hayden, Langer, Mcgrath, Warne and Ponting? No team, no matter how strong it is, has reserves good enough to replace these players. It is not England’s fault that India has an injury list this long. But it is not India’s fault either.
Another way in which the stars aligned for England was them getting to face this weakened India team in a home series. Look at the series results for these teams since the last time they met in a series in England in 2007;
- India has not lost a series at home, their worst result being 2 drawn series against South Africa. They have won against Pakistan, England, Australia (twice), Sri Lanka and New Zealand. They have not played at home against West Indies in this time period. They have lost 2 away series – to Sri Lanka and to Australia, have drawn series in Sri Lanka and South Africa and have won against England, New Zealand, Bangladesh and West Indies. They have not played an away series with Pakistan in this time period.
- England has lost 2 home series – to India and South Africa, drew none, and won against every other test team. They have lost 3 away series – against Sri Lanka, India and West Indies, drew against South Africa and won against Australia, New Zealand and Bangladesh. They have not played an away series against Pakistan in this time period.
It is clear that England have an outstanding record at home. They are about to beat India, leaving only South Africa as the team to beat. However, they have not won a series in the sub-continent and have not defeated the other contender for the #1 spot – South Africa. With England’s record in the sub-continent in mind, imagine the current situation reversed. England going to India with Cook, Strauss, Anderson, Swann injured, trying to defend its ranking. What do you think the outcome would be?
We have heard several times that the top ranked team should be able to win in all conditions (like the West Indies team of the 80s and the Aussie teams after that). That is possible only if the top ranked team is significantly better than the other teams. What we have today is 3 teams that are unable to consistently win at home and abroad. No 1 team amongst India, England and South Africa is significantly better than the others. Who is at #1 will depend a lot on a favorable draw for that team in the FTP.
So as England will take over the #1 ranking at the end of this series, it will not mean that England is a better side, and that India will not be able to reclaim the top spot. This series is not the beginning of the end for India, but just a blip on an impressive record. Do not lose hope. This team will bounce back.
p.s. Wanted – a young spinner to replace Harbhajan. The turbanator needs to rediscover himself by playing first class cricket.
